The Broad Concept - Elliott Wave Principle

The Broad Concept - Elliott Wave Principle

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In The Elliott Wave Principle — A Critical Appraisal, A. Hamilton Bolton made this opening statement:

As we have advanced through some of the most unpredictable economic climate imaginable, covering depression, major war, and postwar reconstruction and boom, I have noted how well Elliott’s Wave Principle has fitted into the facts of life as they have developed, and have accordingly gained more confidence that this Principle has a good quotient of basic value.

In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. The patterns he discerned are repetitive in form but not necessarily in time or amplitude. Elliott isolated five such patterns, or "waves," that recur in market price data. He named, defined and illustrated these patterns and their variations. He then described how they link together to form larger versions of themselves, how they in turn link to form the same patterns of the next larger size, and so on, producing a structured progression. He called this phenomenon The Wave Principle.

Although it is the best Forex Signals tool in existence, the Wave Principle is not primarily a Forex Signals tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. Nevertheless, that description does impart an immense amount of knowledge about the market’s position within the behavioral continuum and therefore about its probable ensuing path. The primary value of the Wave Principle is that it provides a context for market analysis and FREE Forex Signals . This context provides both a basis for disciplined thinking and a perspective on the market’s general position and outlook. At times, its accuracy in identifying, and even anticipating, changes in direction is almost unbelievable. Many areas of mass human activity display the Wave Principle, but it is most popularly used in the stock market. Truly, however, the stock market is far more significant to the human condition than it appears to casual observers and even to those who make their living by it. The level of aggregate stock prices is a direct and immediate measure of the popular valuation of man’s total productive capability. That this valuation has form is a fact of profound implications that will ultimately revolutionize the social sciences. That, however, is a discussion for another time.

R.N. Elliott’s genius consisted of a wonderfully disciplined mental process, suited to studying charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its predecessors with such thoroughness and precision that he could construct a network of principles that reflected all market action known to him up to the mid-1940s. At that time, with the Dow near 100, Elliott predicted a great bull market for the next several decades that would exceed all expectations at a time when most investors felt it impossible that the Dow could even better its 1929 peak. As we shall see, exceptional stock market forecasts, some of pinpoint accuracy years in advance, have accompanied the history of the application of the Elliott wave approach.

Elliott had theories regarding the origin and meaning of the patterns he discovered, which we will present and expand upon in Chapter 3. Until then, suffice it to say that the patterns described in Chapters 1 and 2 have stood the test of time.

Often one will hear several different interpretations of the market’s Elliott wave status, especially when cursory, offthe- cuff studies of the averages are made by latter-day experts. However, most uncertainties can be avoided by keeping charts on both arithmetic and semilogarithmic scale and by taking care to follow the rules and guidelines as laid down in this book. Welcome to the world of Elliott.

 

Leading Diagonal

 

Leading Diagonal

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When diagonal triangles occur in the wave 5 or C position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that Elliott described. However, it has recently come to light that a variation on this pattern occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. The characteristic overlapping of waves 1 and 4 and the convergence of boundary lines into a wedge shape remain as in the ending diagonal triangle. However, the subdivisions are different, tracing out a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern. The structure of this formation (see Figure 1-20) fits the spirit of the Wave Principle in that the five-wave subdivisions in the direction of the larger trend communicate a "continuation" message as opposed to the "termination" implication of the three-wave subdivisions in the ending diagonal. Analysts must be aware of this pattern to avoid mistaking it for a far more common development, a series of first and second waves. The main key to recognizing this pattern is the decided slowing of price change in the fifth subwave relative to the third. By contrast, in developing first and second waves, short term speed typically increases, and breadth (i.e., the number of stocks or subindexes participating) often expands.

 

Figure 1-21 shows a real life example of a leading diagonal triangle. This pattern was not originally discovered by R.N. Elliott but has appeared enough times and over a long enough period that we are convinced of its validity.

WAVE FUNCTION Elliott wave

WAVE FUNCTION Elliott wave

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Every wave serves one of two functions: action or reaction. Specifically, a wave may either advance the cause of the wave of one larger degree or interrupt it. The function of a wave is determined by its relative direction. An actionary or trend wave is any wave that trends in the same direction as the wave of one larger degree of which it is a part. A reactionary or countertrend wave is any wave that trends in the direction opposite to that of the wave of one larger degree of which it is part. Actionary waves are labeled with odd numbers and letters. Reactionary waves are labeled with even numbers and letters.

All reactionary waves develop in corrective mode. If all actionary waves developed in motive mode, then there would be no need for different terms. Indeed, most actionary waves do subdivide into five waves. However, as the following sections reveal, a few actionary waves develop in corrective mode, i.e., they subdivide into three waves or a variation thereof. A detailed knowledge of pattern construction is required before one can draw the distinction between actionary function and motive mode, which in the underlying model introduced so far are indistinct. A thorough understanding of the forms detailed in the next five lessons will clarify why we have introduced these terms to the Elliott Wave lexicon.

Lesson 4: Motive Waves

Motive waves subdivide into five waves with certain characteristics and always move in the same direction as the trend of one larger degree. They are straightforward and relatively easy to recognize and interpret.

Within motive waves, wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1, and wave 4 never retraces more than 100% of wave 3. Wave 3, moreover, always travels beyond the end of wave 1. The goal of a motive wave is to make progress, and these rules of formation assure that it will.

Elliott further discovered that in price terms, wave 3 is often the longest and never the shortest among the three actionary waves (1, 3 and 5) of a motive wave. As long as wave 3 undergoes a greater percentage movement than either wave 1 or 5, this rule is satisfied. It almost always holds on an arithmetic basis as well. There are two types of motive waves: impulses and diagonal triangles

 

 

Common trading mistakes: part two

Common trading mistakes: part two

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Overreliance on software

Most people use some form of technology to assist their trading.

 

For example, you might study chart patterns or use automated alerts and algorithms as prompts to trade.

 

But, as useful as all of these tools are, it is important to remember that they are only tools, and must be employed wisely.

 

Just as your satnav can occasionally direct you to drive into a deep torrent of water because it doesn't know the river has flooded, trading technology isn't something to follow blindly. You still need to keep your eyes open and react intelligently to the signs you see.

 

Car

So when using technology, such as charting software or other analysis tools, it's important that you understand the underlying concepts and the reasons behind what the charts are telling you. This will allow you to see the bigger picture and avoid unnecessary mistakes.

 

Lack of record keeping

Do you remember your first trade? What about the third, or the fifth?

 

If you're new to trading, the details may still be clear in your memory. But in a few months' time will you still be able to describe each step and decision in detail?

 

Unless you keep a trading log or diary, the chances are that this information will be lost. And if you can't remember what you did right, how can you replicate it? Similarly, if you don't know where you went wrong you could easily make the same mistakes again.

 

Your trading diary will let you look back at your experiences with the value of hindsight and learn from them. So what should you record in it?

 

Question

Which of the following is NOT worth putting in your trading diary?

A

Why you decided to trade

B

What you were wearing at the time

C

Where you placed your stops or limits

D

How you felt at the time you opened and closed the trade

 

Reveal answer

Bad timing

Timing is not only the art of good comedy - it's also central to good trading.

 

In the same way that a stand-up artist needs to deliver the punchline at exactly the right moment, you need to time your entry and exit from a market perfectly to maximise any profit or minimise any loss.

 

Timing mistakes are common among new traders. So how can you avoid them? Although getting your timing right isn't an exact science, there are a few tools that will help you to act at the right moment:

 

Chart analysis will help you forecast potential scenarios by revealing market patterns

A trading plan will help you to define your strategy, meaning you're more likely to avoid impulsive actions

Stops and limits will allow you to go about your business without having to monitor the markets constantly

summary

Remember the limitations of software and use it intelligently

Keep a trading diary and reflect on the strategies that have worked well (or not so well)

Use tools such as charts, stops and limits to help you get your timing right when opening and closing positions

Controlling emotions that cloud your judgment

Controlling emotions that cloud your judgment

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Some types of emotion can affect the clarity of your thinking, and so impact any trading decisions you make.

Anger

A losing trade can make you furious - often simply with yourself, for making a bad decision.

 

But we all make mistakes - it's an important way to learn. If it happens to you, as it inevitably will one day, put it down to experience and make a mental note about what to do differently next time.

 

One common impulse in moments of anger is to try and 'get back at the market' by placing another trade. This sort of knee-jerk reaction - or 'hair-trigger trade' - is nearly always a bad idea. Alternatively, you might just start buying anything and everything indiscriminately. This is known as 'shotgun trading'.

 

Take a moment to sit back and breathe deeply, then consider objectively whether your proposed trade really makes sense and is in line with your overall trading strategy.

 

Relax

Regret

Another common source of annoyance is missing an opportunity - something that's easy to do in the fast-moving world of financial markets.

 

When this happens, it's easy to give yourself a hard time about it, repeating things like 'I should have bought there' or 'I knew that was going to happen'. But this sort of mentality can lure you into traps capable of undoing all your hard work at a stroke.

 

You might, for example, be tempted to place a belated trade anyway, or to risk placing a number of trades in quick succession - known as overtrading - to set things right. You might even 'go on tilt', a particular state of mind which means you make irrational decisions, rather than those based on the merit of what's right in front of you.

 

That's why, if the moment has passed, you need a few tricks to remain clear-headed until the next signal comes along.

 

Fortunately, those tricks are as simple as taking a break, casting an eye over your original trading plan and exercising a positive mentality - remember, missing a move is not the end of the world.

 

Sentimentality

Suppose you've traded gold several times, and each time you've made a healthy profit. It might be tempting to start believing (perhaps subconsciously) that 'gold is your friend', and that it will reward you in the same way every time.

 

Gold

Once this conviction grows, there's a danger that you'll open further positions in gold without properly considering the current situation.

 

Unfortunately, the fact that a particular instrument has been profitable in the past is no guarantee that it will continue to perform for you. But likewise, if you've had a bad experience with a certain asset that's no reason to shy away from any future opportunities it offers.

 

Stress

There are times in all of our lives when events beyond our control affect our ability to think clearly.

 

It could be divorce, family illness, bereavement, or just moving house or changing jobs. All of these things will distract you from trading and could cloud your judgment.

 

The world of financial trading can be hectic, demanding your undivided attention. So when you're going through stressful periods, it's often safest to put your trading on hold until you can commit the necessary time and energy to it again.

 

summary

Don't beat yourself up about poor decisions or missed opportunities. Learn from your mistakes and look forward to getting it right next time

To avoid going on tilt when things go wrong, take a break, remind yourself of your trading plan, and wait until you're back in a positive state of mind

Remember that sentimentality and superstition have no place in trading. No market is your friend or enemy, and every opportunity should be assessed on its merits

When you're suffering from stress in other areas of your life, it may be wise to put your trading on hold

Controlling emotions that hold you back

 

Controlling emotions that hold you back

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So far, we've explored many different aspects of the financial markets and the techniques of trading. But there's one key component that affects the success of every trade you make, and that's you.

 

No matter how strong or level-headed you can be, you are a human being, so you have emotions. And naturally your feelings can influence your thinking and your behaviour as a trader.

 

Controlling emotions

Trading is an exciting and absorbing activity that can bring you moments of euphoria when things are going well, while equally it can be psychologically tough if markets turn against you. By understanding the emotions you're likely to experience at every point in the trading process, you can mentally prepare yourself to handle them effectively. That way, your feelings won't get in the way of your decision-making or harm your potential profits.

 

In this course, we'll look at some of the emotions you may need to deal with when you trade.

 

Anxiety and doubt

It's great to be cautious and considered in your trading, but if your worries are crippling you that's counter-productive.

 

The transition to a live trading account after using 'play' money in a demo environment is one step that worries some traders. It's a bit like doing a parachute jump: you've learned the theory and done all the preparation, but making that leap still takes courage.

 

Live and demo

There are, however, things you can do to make it a little less daunting:

 

Reflect on the lessons you learned while using the demo account

Apply the same strategies that brought you success in demo trades

Follow a trading plan

Start by trading in small sizes until you feel comfortable

Use risk-management tools, such as stop-losses

As long as you trade sensibly, use the skills and knowledge you've already gained and keep your positions modest, there's every reason to expect success. Of course you will make mistakes - we all do - but by managing risk carefully you'll minimise your losses.

 

Fear of loss

Another time that you might experience fear is when a position is moving against you and you begin to see a growing loss.

 

Example

Imagine you've bought EUR/USD because your analysis strongly suggests it's about to rise. You've considered the risk involved and set a stop-loss.

However, as time passes the currency pair seems to be stuck in a downtrend. It hasn't hit your stop, but the rise you predicted remains elusive. You start to feel nervous: should you close the position now and cut your losses? Should you adjust your stop closer?

Before taking any action, ask yourself:

Was my original analysis flawed?

Have circumstances affecting this market changed since I opened my trade?

Did I place my stop at the wrong level?

If everything suggests your original analysis is still valid, and if you've positioned your stop correctly to protect yourself against unacceptable loss, there's no reason to alter or kill your trade. Have confidence in your original judgment and let things play out - your loss could turn into a profit.

summary

Your emotional state can have a strong influence on the bottom line of your trading, so it's important to learn how to manage your feelings

Don't allow doubts and fears to paralyse you. Markets move swiftly, and hesitation can lead to missed opportunities

By following a plan, trading in small sizes and using risk management tools, you'll feel more secure and confident in your trading decisions

What is forex?

What is forex?

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What is forex?

If you've ever gone on holiday and exchanged say, pounds for euros, then you've participated in the forex market. Simply put:

 

Forex is how individuals and businesses convert one currency to another.

 

Forex

Forex, also known as foreign exchange, FX or the currency market, is the largest financial market in the world. On average over $5 trillion worth of transactions take place every day. That's around 100 times more than the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) - the world's biggest stock exchange.

 

As well as being traded by individuals and businesses, forex is also important for financial institutions, central banks, and governments. It facilitates international trade and investment by allowing companies that earn money in one currency to pay for goods and services in another.

 

Who trades forex?

There are a huge number of market participants looking to trade forex at any particular time, from individual speculators wanting to turn a quick profit, to central banks trying to control the amount of currency in circulation.

 

However, by far the most significant players in the forex market are the major international banks. Between them, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, JPMorgan and UBS account for around 50% of global forex trade.

 

Euromoney FX Survey

Why do people trade forex?

Individuals and businesses participate in the forex market for two main reasons:

 

Speculation

The vast majority of forex transactions are made simply to make money. This means the person or institution making the trade has no plans to take delivery of the currency, they are just looking to turn a profit on movements in the market.

 

With major financial institutions always looking to profit from small changes in forex prices, many large trades can occur throughout the day. This activity means currency rates are some of the most consistently volatile financial markets in the world - which in turn provides more opportunity for speculators to make money.

 

Purchasing goods or services in another currency

Every time a transaction is made between two entities in different regions, a foreign exchange transaction needs to take place to pay for the goods or services exchanged. Transactions such as this happen globally, every second of every day.

 

Despite the number of transactions, the amount of currency traded is often very small compared to trades made by large speculators. Therefore commercial trading tends not to have such a big effect on short-term market rates.

 

How do you trade forex?

Unlike share trading, forex is an over-the-counter (OTC) market. This means that currencies are exchanged directly between two parties rather than through an exchange.

 

The forex market is run electronically via a global network of banks - it has no central location, and trades can take place anywhere via a forex broker of your choice. This also means that you can trade forex at any time, so long as it's during trading hours in any one of the four major forex trading centres (London, New York, Sydney and Tokyo).

 

Forex trading hours: April-October (UK time)

Forex Trading Hours

In practice, that means you can trade most forex pairs from around 21:00 or 22:00 (UK time) on Sunday to 21:00 or 22:00 (UK time) on Friday, every week. The exact times can vary due to daylight saving time changes in the UK, USA and Australia.

 

How does a forex trade work?

Forex prices are always quoted in pairs such as AUD/EUR, which stands for the Australian dollar versus the euro. This is because if you want to purchase Australian dollars you need to buy them with another currency, like euros.

 

When trading forex you are simultaneously BUYING one currency while SELLING another.

 

 

Lesson summary

Forex is how individuals and businesses convert one currency to another

The main players in the market are major international banks

Speculation accounts for the vast majority of transactions

It's an over-the-counter (OTC) market, where trades take place directly between two parties rather than through an exchange

Forex is traded in pairs - you are simultaneously buying one currency while selling another

The first currency in every pair is the base or primary currency. The second is the quote or counter currency

How to become a successful trader

How to become a successful trader

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To become a successful trader, you need a clear system that helps you to stay consistent and handle negative market movements. You must also guard against becoming over-emotional. There is no magic formula to becoming a successful trader, but there are a few steps you can take to make sure you’re mastering both the basics and complexities of trading:

Do your research

Create a trading plan

Practise your trades

When you’re ready to take on the markets, you can open a live trading account.

Do your research

Improving your knowledge of financial markets is the first step to becoming a successful trader. Start by researching the different markets available to trade and to build your trading skills. Remember that you can never know too much; if you want to be a successful trader, you must always aim to improve your knowledge.

Create a trading plan

A trading plan is a blueprint for how you are going to trade. It is driven by your trading strategy, helping you to quantify your goals and motivation. Your trading plan also covers your risk management strategy and preferred analysis method.

 

Learn how to create a successful trading plan

Practise your trades

If you want to put your trading plan into practice, you can start trialling your trades on demo account. With a demo account, you can develop your skills without risking your capital right away. Practising your trades will also help you to refine your trading strategy and learn from any mistakes.

Symmetrical Triangle

Symmetrical Triangle

 

The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time.

 

Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend (at least a few months old) should exist. The symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuing after the breakout.

 

Four (4) Points: At least 2 points are required to form a trend line and 2 trend lines are required to form a symmetrical triangle. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points are required to begin considering a formation as a symmetrical triangle. The second high (2) should be lower than the first (1) and the upper line should slope down. The second low (2) should be higher than the first (1) and the lower line should slope up. Ideally, the pattern will form with 6 points (3 on each side) before a breakout occurs.

 

Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout.

 

Duration: The symmetrical triangle can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a pennant. Typically, the time duration is about 3 months.

 

Breakout Timeframe: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime.

 

Breakout Direction: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred. Sounds obvious enough, but attempting to guess the direction of the breakout can be dangerous. Even though a continuation pattern is supposed to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case.

 

Breakout Confirmation: A break should be on a closing basis for it to be considered valid. Some traders apply a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume, especially on upside breakouts.

 

Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout.

 

Price Target: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.

 

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Bump and Run Reversal

Bump and Run Reversal

The pattern was originally named the Bump and Run Formation, or BARF. Bulkowski decided that Wall Street was not ready for such an acronym and changed the name to Bump and Run Reversal. Bulkowski identified three main phases to the pattern: lead-in, bump, and run. We will examine these phases and also look at  Forex Signals  volume and pattern validation.

 

1.      Lead-in Phase: The first part of the pattern is a lead-in phase that can last 1 month or longer and forms the basis from which to draw the trend line. During this phase, prices advance in an orderly manner and there is no excess speculation. The trend line should be moderately steep. If it is too steep, then the ensuing bump is unlikely to be significant enough. If the trend line is not steep enough, then the subsequent trend line break will occur too late. Bulkowski advises that an angle of 30 to 45 degrees is preferable. The size of the angle will depend on the scaling (semi-log or arithmetic) and the size of the chart. It is probably easier to judge the soundness of the trend line with a visual assessment.

2.     Bump Phase: The bump forms with a sharp advance, and prices move further away from the lead-in trend line. Ideally, the angle of the trend line from the bump's advance should be about 50% greater than the angle of the trend line extending up from the lead-in phase. Roughly speaking, this would call for an angle between 45 and 60 degrees. If it is not possible to measure the angles, then a visual assessment will suffice.

3.     Bump Validity: It is important that the bump represent a speculative advance that cannot be sustained for a long time. Bulkowski developed what he calls an “arbitrary” measuring technique to validate the level of speculation in the bump. The distance from the highest high of the bump to the lead-in trend line should be at least twice the distance from the highest high in the lead-in phase to the lead-in trend line. These distances can be measured by drawing a vertical line from the highest highs to the lead-in trend line. An example is provided in the chart below.

4.     Bump Rollover: After speculation dies down, prices begin to peak and a top forms. Sometimes, a small double top or a series of descending peaks forms instead. Prices begin to decline towards the lead-in trend line, and the right side of the bump forms.

5.     Volume: As the stock advances during the lead-in phase, volume is usually average and sometimes low. When the speculative advance begins to form the left side of the bump, volume expands as the advance accelerates.

6.     Run Phase: The run phase begins when the pattern breaks support from the lead-in trend line. Prices will sometimes hesitate or bounce off the trend line before breaking through. Once the break occurs, the run phase takes over, and the decline continues.

7.     Support Turns Resistance: After the trend line is broken, there is sometimes a retracement that tests the newfound resistance level. Potential support-turned-resistance levels can also be identified from the reaction lows within the bump.

The Bump and Run Reversal pattern can be applied to  Forex Signals  daily, weekly or monthly charts. As stated above, the pattern is designed to identify speculative advances that are unsustainable for a long period. Because prices rise very fast to form the left side of the bump, the subsequent decline can be just as ferocious.

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