Falling Wedge

Falling Wedge

The Falling Wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout occurs.

While this article will focus on the falling wedge as a reversal pattern, it can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the falling wedge will still slope down, but the slope will be against the prevailing uptrend. As a reversal pattern, the falling wedge slopes down and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), falling wedges are regarded as bullish patterns.

 

Prior Trend: To qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. Ideally, the falling wedge will form after an extended downtrend and mark the final low. The pattern usually forms over a 3-6 month period and the preceding downtrend should be at least 3 months old.

 

Upper Resistance Line: It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line, ideally three. Each reaction high should be lower than the previous highs.

 

Lower Support Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low should be lower than the previous lows.

 

Contraction: The upper resistance line and lower support line converge to form a cone as the pattern matures. The reaction lows still penetrate the previous lows, but this penetration becomes shallower. Shallower lows indicate a decrease in selling pressure and create a lower support line with less negative slope than the upper resistance line.

 

Resistance Break: Bullish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the resistance line is broken in convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break above the previous reaction high for further confirmation. Once resistance is broken, there can sometimes be a correction to test the newfound support level.

 

Volume: While volume is not particularly important on rising wedges, it is an essential ingredient to confirm a falling wedge breakout. Without an expansion of volume, the breakout will lack conviction and be vulnerable to failure.

 

As with rising wedges, the falling wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. When lower highs and lower lows form, as in a falling wedge, a security remains in a downtrend. The falling wedge is designed to spot a decrease in downside momentum and alert technicians to a potential trend reversal. Even though selling pressure may be diminishing, demand does not win out until resistance is broken. As with most patterns, it is important to wait for a breakout and combine other aspects of technical analysis to confirm signals.

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Head and Shoulders Top

 

Head and Shoulders Top

 

A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion marks a trend reversal. The pattern contains three successive peaks, with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline.

 

As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder, a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with some examples.

 

Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter).

 

Left Shoulder: While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact.

 

Head: From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy.

 

Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline.

 

Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness—a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. In some cases, multiple low points can be used to form the neckline.

 

Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. Together, the decrease in volume and the new high of the head serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head, then decreases during the advance of the right shoulder. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.

 

Neckline Break: The head and shoulders pattern is not complete and the uptrend is not reversed until neckline support is broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion in volume.

 

Support Turned Resistance: Once support is broken, it is common for this same support level to turn into resistance. Sometimes, but certainly not always, the price will return to the support break, and offer a second chance to sell.

 

Price Target: After breaking neckline support, the projected price decline is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. This distance is then subtracted from the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered as well. These factors might include previous support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages.

 

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Develop your Trading Plan

Develop your Trading Plan

 

Sometimes there is a misconception that you need highly evolved market knowledge and years of trading experience to be successful. However, we often see that the more information we have the more difficult it is to create a clear plan. More information tends to create hesitation and doubt, which in turn allows emotions to creep in. This can prevent you from taking a step back and looking at a situation subjectively.

 

If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there. In trading, if you don’t set out a plan for your trades and develop strategies to follow you have no way to measure your success. The vast majority of people do not trade to a plan, so it’s not a mystery why they lose money. Trading with a plan is comparable to building a business. We are never going to be able to beat the market. In general it’s not about winning or losing, it’s about being profitable overall.

 

Why a trading plan is important

When trading, as in most endeavors, it’s important to start at the end and work backwards to create your plan and figure out what type of trader you should be. The most successful traders trade to a plan, and may even have several plans that work together. Always write things down. Why? Because it will help you stay focused on your trading objectives, and the less judgment we have to use the better. A plan helps you maintain discipline as a trader. It should help you trade consistently, manage your emotions, and even help to improve your trading strategy. It is also important to use your plan. Many people make the mistake of spending all their time creating a plan, then never implementing it.

 

Key components to develop a trading plan

Trading plan structure and monetary goals

Research and education

Strategy using fundamental and technical tools

Money and risk management

Timing

Trade mechanics, documentation, and testing

How to build a trading plan

Make sure you do your own research and build a plan according to your needs. Find confidence in what you know. The tools you have selected for your strategy are key, from the type of chart to the specific drawing tools to even the most elaborate of strategies. Test your plan in the beginning to make sure you are on the right track. After you have begun trading, continue testing it regularly. This allows you to measure your success by clearly seeing what works and what does not work. From there you can tweak elements that might be weaker and not contributing to your overall goal. Ask yourself the following questions (The answers to these will assist you in the foundation for your trading plan and should be referred back to regularly to insure that you are on track with your plan.)

 

Why am I trading?

If your immediate answer is, “to make money” you should stop right there. If the only goal is to make as much money as fast as we can, we are ultimately doomed, because it will never be enough. Managing your losses should be your primary goal. This will create an environment in which profits can be generated.

 

What is your motivation?

Solid retirement? New career? Spend more time with family and friends?

 

Ask yourself, “What are my strengths and weaknesses?”

How do I maximize my strengths to minimize my weaknesses?

An example of a weakness is a need to constantly watch one’s trades. Is your laptop on the pillow, waking you up in the middle of the night to monitor trades? It’s really difficult to make intelligent decisions when you’re half awake.

Is the amount of money I have to trade with sensible to achieve my goals?

Look at things in percentages; remember leverage is a double-edged sword. That is why risk and money management are key.

 

Deciding what type of trader you are can be tough; especially since the trader you want to be can be very different from the type of trader you should be based on your behaviors and characteristics. Once you have laid out your goals, risk appetite, strengths, and weaknesses it should become apparent which type of trading fits you best. You will notice three columns in the chart; they are labeled short, base and long. Base equals the timeframe charts you spend the majority of your time, if you are not sure, this is the timeframe chart that you keep going back to. Short and long are the timeframe charts that you refer to confirming or denying what is happening in the base timeframe chart. A common mistake traders make is jumping around randomly between chart timeframes.

 

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Understanding Technical Analysis
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Understanding Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the study of historical price action in order to identify patterns and determine probabilities of future movements in the market through the use of technical studies, indicators, and other analysis tools.

 

Technical analysis boils down to two things:

 

identifying trend

identifying support/resistance through the use of price charts and/or timeframes

Markets can only do three things: move up, down, or sideways.

 

Prices typically move in a zigzag fashion, and as a result, price action has only two states:

 

Range – when prices zigzag sideways

Trend – prices either zigzag higher (up trend, or bull trend), or prices zigzag lower (down trend, or bear trend)

Understanding Technical Analysis Chart

Why is technical analysis important?

Technical analysis of a market can help you determine not only when and where to enter a market, but much more importantly, when and where to get out.

 

How can you use technical analysis?

Technical analysis is based on the theory that the markets are chaotic (no one knows for sure what will happen next), but at the same time, price action is not completely random. In other words, mathematical Chaos Theory proves that within a state of chaos there are identifiable patterns that tend to repeat.

 

This type of chaotic behavior is observed in nature in the form of weather forecasts. For example, most traders will admit that there are no certainties when it comes to predicting exact price movements. As a result, successful trading is not about being right or wrong: it’s all about determining probabilities and taking trades when the odds are in your favor. Part of determining probabilities involves forecasting market direction and when/where to enter into a position, but equally important is determining your risk-to-reward ratio.

 

Remember, there is no magical combination of technical indicators that will unlock some sort of secret trading strategy. The secret of successful trading is good risk management, discipline, and the ability to control your emotions. Anyone can guess right and win every once in a while, but without risk management it is virtually impossible to remain profitable over time.

 

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Chandelier Exit
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Chandelier Exit

 

The Chandelier Exit is basically a volatility-based system that identifies outsized price movements. Le Beau defined volatility by using the Average True Range, which was developed by Welles Wilder, creator of RSI and the Average Directional Index. ATR uses the prior close, current high and current low to determine the “True Range” for a given period. After some smoothing, the daily True Range values evolve into the Average True Range for a given period of time.

By setting the Chandelier Exit for longs three ATR values BELOW the period high, the indicator provides a buffer that is three times the volatility. A decline strong enough to break this level warrants a reevaluation of long positions. The opposite applies to short positions. The Chandelier Exit for shorts is set three ATR values ABOVE the period low, which provides a volatility-based buffer. An advance strong enough to exceed this level warrants a reevaluation of short positions.

Chandelier Uptrend and forex signals

Sometimes chartists will see a strong uptrend, but not know where to jump on and when to exit. The Chandelier Exit can be used to define the trend and set a trailing stop-loss. The example below shows Eaton Corp (ETN) breaking out in early November and starting an extended uptrend. The Chandelier Exit defined this uptrend quite well as it followed price action steadily higher. This trailing stop-loss could have been used to control risk for new long positions.

With the Chandelier Exit providing the stop-loss, traders would then need to find an indicator to trigger buy signals within this trend. A sensitive momentum oscillator can be used to capture short-term oversold conditions. The indicator window shows StochRSI, which is the Stochastic Oscillator applied to RSI. Dips below .20 reflect short-term oversold conditions. A subsequent move back above .20 suggests that the uptrend is continuing.

forex signals Chandelier Downtrend

Some stocks are more volatile than others and require a bigger buffer, which means the multiplier should be increased. The Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) example shows the stock in a clear downtrend for most of 2012. A normal Chandelier Exit (22,3.0,short) would have triggered some stops just before the downtrend continued. Notice how HPQ moved above the dashed gray line several times during this downtrend. Chartists should increase the ATR multiplier for more volatile stocks, such as techs. In this example, the red Chandelier line allows for more volatility by using 5 as the multiplier. HPQ held this Chandelier setting until the breakout in mid-December, which signaled the start of an uptrend.

The Chandelier Exit is good for stops, but chartists need to use basic chart analysis or a momentum oscillator to time entries. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) can be used to identify short-term overbought conditions within a downtrend. CCI becomes overbought with a move above +100. A subsequent move back below +100 signals that momentum is turning down again.

The Chandelier Exit is mostly used to set a trailing stop-loss for forex signals during a trend. Trends sometimes extend further than we anticipate and the Chandelier Exit can help traders ride the trend a little longer. Even though it is mostly used for stop-losses, the Chandelier Exit can also be used as a trend tool. A break above the Chandelier Exit (long) forex signals strength, while a break below the Chandelier Exit (short) forex signals weakness. Once a new trend begins, chartists can then use the corresponding Chandelier Exit to help define this trend.

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What is Technical Analysis? Technical Analysis and Forex Signals is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis and  Forex Signals  is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is “likely” to happen to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a wide variety of charts that show price over time.

Use Technical Analysis to generate your free forex signals

At the turn of the century, the Dow Theory laid the foundations for what was later to become modern technical analysis. Dow Theory was not presented as one complete amalgamation, but rather pieced together from the writings of Charles Dow over several years. Of the many theorems put forth by Dow, three stand out:

Price discounts everything

Price movements are not totally random

“What” is more important than “Why”

Technical analysts and  Forex Signals provider consider the market to be 80% psychological and 20% logical. Fundamental analysts consider the market to be 20% psychological and 80% logical. Psychological or logical may be open for debate, but there is no questioning the current price of a security. After all, it is available for all to see and nobody doubts its legitimacy. The price set by the market reflects the sum knowledge of all participants, and we are not dealing with lightweights here. These participants have considered (discounted) everything under the sun and settled on a price to buy or sell FREE forex Signals  . These are the forces of supply and demand at work. By examining price action to determine which force is prevailing, technical analysis focuses directly on the bottom line: What is the price? Where has it been? Where is it going?

Even though there are some universal principles and rules that can be applied, it must be remembered that technical analysis is more of an art form than a science. As an art form, it is subject to interpretation. However, it is also flexible in its approach and each investor should use only that which suits his or her style. Developing a style takes time, effort and dedication, but the rewards can be significant.

 

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